jueves, junio 22, 2006

Turning Japanese

Gone are the days where overpopulation was the big concern on everybody's mind ... now it's underpopulation (at least within your own country and your own type of people).

It is well documented that birth rates decline as cultures become wealthier and more educated. To a point, this is a positive, but a lifetime birth rate below 2.1 children per woman causes population decline (one to replace the mother, one to replace the father, and .1 to account for premature mortality), which in turn increases the relative burden of the aging population on the members of younger generations.

In Japan, that rate is currently 1.25.

Austrailia had already instituted a birthing bonus, paying women to pop out those youngins; now they are about to raise it significantly. The Japanese have a simpler recommendation to their breeding-age citizens: just do it.

A recent study showed that the Japanese don't turn Japanese often enough - at least not as part of a collective effort. If the people could get funky a bit more often now, in about 20 years there will be an ample workforce to support them. If not, they may regret their decision to keep busy instead of get busy.

The old line about our Navy sailers was they spent 6 days a week sewing their seed and the seventh in church praying for crop failure. The sad commentary about the situation in Japan is the owners of the fertile fields are unhappy with the choice of farmers, and vice versa.